tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9177745.post6992085657310977203..comments2024-03-28T11:30:20.005-05:00Comments on El Salvador Perspectives: The aftermath of the gangs shutting down the transport systemTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02452039674856298357noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9177745.post-92226604837627186002015-08-09T01:24:04.930-05:002015-08-09T01:24:04.930-05:00Tim, thanks for this wrap-up. It's depressing...Tim, thanks for this wrap-up. It's depressing. To me, the gang truce scenario seems to closely track the experience in Denver, where a strategy was tried of civic/religious leaders meeting directly with gang leaders to produce a "cease fire," resulting in about a 60% reduction in the murder rate for a while (sound familiar?). The problem was that the "cease fires" didn't hold, and the murder rate has most recently skyrocketed (again, sound familiar?). What is missing, it appears, is a follow-through. The gang truce in El Salvador, whatever the merits of the debate are, it seems to me, was a window that if it was ever open, it is now closed. What it had going for it was that it was a system-wide solution, able to produce immediate results. Everything else, either isn't systemwide: "repression" tactics are limited to particular arrests, specific incidents, targeted operations, etc. Or it does not yield immediate results: tactics that aim at ameliorating the "root cause" conditions will take decades to take effect. One thing we have not yet seen attempted is a true unification effort. Sanchez Ceren's "white march" earlier in the year seemed like an opening gambit that left everyone waiting for another shoe to drop that never did. You would think that because El Salvador is a small country, and the political clamor for a solution is there, that there would be a great opportunity for a leader to step in, FDR-style, fire-side chats and all, and unite the public (and therefore nudge the various sectors) around a detailed policy. Last point: the bus stoppage could be an opening. The placement of patrols on buses could be a start. In Mexico City, a lot of progress was made by targeting drunk drivers. A variant of Giuliani's "broken windows" strategy (if you pursue minor crimes, it will have a carry-over effect), the program seemed to work to reduce gang presence by having police flex their law enforcement muscles fighting DUIs, slowly displacing gangbangers. Similarly, having law enforcement on the buses (preferably, all buses), would effectively translate to a major, permanent force deployment throughout the cities/country, and could be a major first step towards reclaiming the territory.Carlos X.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16580093848691478319noreply@blogger.com