Saturday, February 14, 2015

Final poll results before elections

Several public opinion polls were released last week looking at El Salvador's March 1 elections.   While there is variation among all of the polls, I think the consensus view of the polls would be:

  • Salvadorans view crime as the top problem facing the country.
  • The FMLN will have the most votes for deputies in the National Assembly (somewhere around 35-40%), but will not achieve a majority.   ARENA will have the next highest vote total.   
  • Nayib Bukele will win in San Salvador, allowing the FMLN to retake the mayor's office in the country's largest city for the first time in six years.
  • Most voters will vote for deputies by marking the symbol of their preferred political party, but a measurable number (10-20%) will engage in newly permitted "cross-voting" for candidates of multiple political parties.

You can view all the poll results at the links below.
IUDOP-UCA
La Prensa Grafica 
UTEC-CIOPS
UFG
El Diario de Hoy
CID-Gallup

La Pagina published a compilation of all the recent polls on the San Salvador mayor's race:

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