Monday, May 27, 2013

2014 elections are a three way race

According to the recently released CIOPS/UTEC poll, the leading presidential candidates have very similar levels of support in the country.   When asked which party/candidate respondents would vote for, the results were:

ARENA -- Norman Quijano -- 29.5%
FMLN -- Salvador Sanchez Ceren -- 28.5%
UNIDAD -- Tony Saca -- 23.4%

But another poll question gives a little more insight into these results.  Respondents were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the candidates:

NORMAN QUIJANO
    Favorable 61.2%
    Unfavorable 31.7%
SALVADOR SANCHEZ CEREN
     Favorable 38.3%
     Unfavorable 53.6%
TONY SACA
     Favorable 61.9%
     Unfavorable 31.5%

At this point, I wouldn't want to forecast who will win between Saca and Quijano.   Quijano currently has a lead that reflects the traditional ARENA party faithful, but his lead is slipping.   Saca's support is growing rapidly as the Saca advertising and campaign machine gets into full gear.   Sanchez Ceren and the FMLN appear to have little support outside of the FMLN traditional party faithful.  There is right now no sign of the forces which lifted Mauricio Funes into office coalescing behind a Sanchez Ceren candidacy.    The candidate of the left might make it to a second round in presidential voting, but his high negative opinion ratings suggest that the center and right will coalesce around either Quijano or Saca in a second round.

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