Monday, October 31, 2011

Funes reports on damage totals from Deluge of 2011

The office of El Salvador's president Mauricio Funes released estimated damage figures from the recent rains as described in a report in El Faro.  The cumulative damage estimates include:

  • $840 million in total losses
  • Affecting one out of every 20 Salvadorans
  • Most affected sector was agriculture with losses of $300 million
  • $261 million in infrastructure damages
  • $208 million in damage to houses, schools, and health centers
  • Economic growth for 2011 will only be 1.4% rather than 2.1% (already the lowest in Latin America).

These reports do not include the losses of individual households which had their possessions destroyed or have been unable to work.

The president's office reported that its internal polling shows that 84% of Salvadorans approve of the way the government had handled the crisis.   Funes also took credit for reducing the overall level of loss of life by strengthening the government's ability to respond, including strengthening the Civil Protection ministry which had only 30 employees when Funes took office in 2009.


Sunday, October 30, 2011

Urgent water issues

The availability of healthy water continues to be a serious challenge for El Salvador, and the Deluge of 2011 has only made it worse.   According to a story in La Prensa Grafica, the Ministry of Health reports that  10,186 wells were destroyed or contaminated by the flooding.   In addition, some 28,862 latrines were damaged in the flooding.   These damages to the water and sanitation infrastructure of the country create additional risks for disease.


Meanwhile, El Salvador's legislators have failed to take up a bill which would protect the country's water resources for the benefit of all its citizens.   An article from IPS describes the inaction:
A bill for protection, recovery and use of water resources in El Salvador, drafted by a platform of about 100 social, religious and academic organisations, has been bogged down in parliament for the past five years in spite of the country's water crisis.

"Debate in Congress has been delayed due to lack of political will," Carlos Flores of the Salvadoran Ecological Unit (UNES), one of the civil society organisations belonging to the Water Forum, the umbrella group which presented the draft General Water Law to parliament, told IPS....

While political debate languishes, climate change is driving the country to the point at which demand for water exceeds the available supply, and quality declines, described as a situation of water stress.

A study titled "Situación de los recursos hídricos en Centroamérica: hacia una gestión integrada" (The Status of Water Resources in Central America: Towards Integrated Management), published in April by the Global Water Partnership (GWP), reports that El Salvador is the only Central American country faced with water scarcity.

It warns that water supply in El Salvador is hovering on the threshold of 1,700 cubic metres of water per person per year, the upper limit for the definition of water stress.

The quality of water in the country's rivers is also an issue. A study by the environment ministry last April determined that only two percent of the rivers contain water that can be made fit for human consumption, or used for irrigation or recreational activities.

"We are experiencing a severe water crisis, which will become more serious as a result of climate change, which is why a law is urgently needed," said Flores of UNES. (More).
Great amounts of money will be spent to repair the flooding damage to wells and water supplies. But the job will only be half done if the water legislation languishing in front of the National Assembly is not adopted.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Bill Clinton on the Deluge of 2011


Former US President Bill Clinton issues a call for aid to the countries in Central America suffering the effects of the Deluge of 2011 in this video.  

Thursday, October 27, 2011

How can I help?

El Salvador needs short term and long term aid to care for all the people affected by the Deluge of 2011 and to  produce a safer and more sustainable environment into the future.  Not surprisingly, I have received many inquiries about where people can give.

As you may have deduced from the address for this blog, my religious affiliation is Lutheran.  One good way to give money for disaster relief in El Salvador and the rest of Central America is the ELCA Disaster Response.   ELCA Disaster Response is very efficient, and guarantees that 100% of funds designated for a particular disaster will be spent with that disaster and not used elsewhere in the organization.   You can donate at this link.

In addition, here is a list of organizations working in El Salvador where I have good knowledge of their work and who would be worthy recipients of your donations.


Note that I have only listed US based 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations because the bulk of my readers come from the US.   There are certainly more organizations based in El Salvador which are doing great work in disaster relief, but it is more difficult for someone in the US to give funds to them, and you don't get a tax deduction.  I will list one organization, however.   The Comandos de Salvamento have been providing response to emergencies in El Salvador for decades.   They were performing heroic duty from the moment the waters began rising.   You can visit their website and donate online here.

There are many other organizations which are providing disaster relief as well.   A few searches on the Internet will help you find them.  I invite any organization providing disaster relief in El Salvador to provide information about your organization using the comment feature on this blog.

 In evaluating organizations, you may want to consider these Tips for Giving in Times of Crisis and use the tools at Charity Navigator to check up on an organization soliciting your funds.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

News coverage (finally) of the floods

Over the past several few days there have finally started to appear more complete news stories in the English language press related to the Deluge of 2011.   The coverage may be related to an emergency appeal by the United Nations to raise disaster relief funds for El Salvador.  The UN's assessment of the situation is to the point:

25 October 2011 –
United Nations aid agencies are ramping up their efforts to provide shelter, food and health care to El Salvador, which is facing one of the greatest disasters in its history as heavy rains continue to cause severe flooding across Central America. 
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported today that 56,000 people have been displaced and many are in need of water, food and sanitation. The agency also said there has been an increase in reported cases of flood-related illnesses such as diarrhoea, conjunctivitis, chicken pox, and dengue fever. 
During a press briefing in Geneva, OCHA spokesperson Elisabeth Byrs said a $15.7 million joint flash appeal with the Government was launched today with the aim of assisting 300,000 people in the next six months. 
OCHA estimates the overall number of affected people to be 1.2 million, but said this figure was constantly evolving. 
The appeal will focus on providing shelter, drinking water, food and health services as well as actively monitoring the country’s two principal volcanoes, as there is particular concern about possible mudslides and seismic movements in populated areas, including San Salvador, the capital.
Following the UN appeal, Reuters AlertNet published an article about the need for aid dollars to prevent a food crisis in El Salvador.

UNICEF published a report on its website about families displaced by the rains, along with this video:




The BBC had a story about the damages caused by the floods with a particular focus on the loss of food production.

IPS ran a piece titled Central America slowly learning the value of disaster prevention.

Bloomberg, like the Wall Street Journal, has only commented on the impact on coffee exports.

The Washington Post had an article titled D.C's Salvadoran community aiding flood victims.

The Christian Science Monitor ran my blog post from October 24.






Monday, October 24, 2011

The human role in the Deluge of 2011

The floods of this month in El Salvador were extraordinary.   But when we look at the consequences of the floods, it is clear that calling this a "natural" disaster excuses too easily the role of humankind in contributing to the tragedy.  There are several places where the actions or inactions of human beings had a role:


Global climate change.   Weather scientists asked about the flooding rains of October opined that the rains were an example of the more extreme and variable weather events produced by global climate change.   The charts I have posted in this blog showing rain totals of other weather events in El Salvador certainly seem to show that the past decade has been significantly worse than the preceding 40 years.  The carbon emissions of an industrialized world have created an imbalance producing life threatening weather events in ever-increasing frequency.

Structural poverty.   In the pictures from the flooding in El Salvador and the rest of Central America, you do not see any photos of the homes of the middle and upper classes -- you see champas of scrap wood and corrugated tin.   You do not see manicured lawns under water -- you see the tiny milpas of the campesino farmer.   You do not see a submerged Lexus -- you see the water flowing over an ox cart.   You do not see the bank manager sitting in a school which has been converted into a shelter -- you see the single mother with two children who sells trinkets on the side of the street.

These flood disasters which hit El Salvador on a regular basis disproportionately affect the poor because they can only afford to build their dwellings in places where they are at risk.   So they end up living in the flood plains, along the gullies which can flash flood, and in communities where a mudslide can block access along the one unimproved road.

Salvadoran Catholic bishop Gregorio Rosa Chavez has proclaimed that the disaster caused by the rains demonstrated "the economic vulnerability, that is to say the poverty so many of our countrymen live immersed within, the social vulnerability, characterized by the structural injustice and the ecological vulnerability, for which the great fault lies in the wild ambition that rages against God's creation, this house of all of us which is deteriorating more each day."

The role of hydroelectric projects.   Some are certainly blaming the flooding of the Lower Lempa River on the dams built on the river and the periods of enormous water discharge through the September 15 dam.  It's hard to know what would have happened if there were no dams on the river.  Generating clean electric power is also important for the country as is the flood control on the river.    

The failure to complete risk mitigation projects.  The areas where there were floods and landslides in El Salvador are all places known to be at risk, because they have flooded or collapsed before.   In part, the fact that the risks are well understood contributed to a relatively low loss of life in these floods -- communities could be evacuated because the coming dangers were foreseeable.   But since these risks were foreseeable, why was so little done to eliminate the risks in the first place?  I remember standing near the community of Puerto Parada in the summer of 2010 where flood waters from the Rio Grande de San Miguel had just about dried up.   Someone pointed to where the levee along the river had burst to allow in the flood waters.   In the past two weeks, I have seen the video of the water again flowing through Puerto Parada as the levee burst again.   This same story is repeated in many areas in El Salvador.    The government has not done enough to mitigate the foreseeable risks.

***

Feeding the hungry, sheltering the homeless, replanting fields, and treating water borne illnesses will all be an important part of flood relief in the coming days, weeks, and months.   But until the underlying structural problems are addressed and the risks are mitigated, I fear this tragedy will repeat itself.   And with global climate change, the repeat event may come much sooner than El Salvador can ever afford.


Sunday, October 23, 2011

The relief efforts for the Deluge of 2011

As the floodwaters recede, this post focuses on the relief effort. The government is still warning, however, about the ongoing possibility of landslides from the super-saturated soils on mountainsides which it describes as a "moderate probability" in many areas throughout the country.

International aid is arriving. There has been a shipment of medicines from Venezuela.   Brazil delivered 1000 tons of rice and beans, and another $100,000 donation for the purchase of foodstuffs. Spain provided 109 tons of food. A shipment of aid for Salvadoran families valued at $181,000 from the US government arrived by plane today. The US Embassy lists aid worth almost $250,000 delivered previously on its website. Other countries providing assistance include Chile, Germany, Mexico and Taiwan. The Salvadoran government is receiving funds from a $50 million loan from the InterAmerican Development Bank and has designated $22 million of repair of bridges and roads washed away by the floods.

With elections upcoming, political parties have not resisted the temptation to politicize aid distribution. The mayor of San Salvador, Norman Quijano, has filled the Facebook page for the San Salvador municipal government with scenes of the mayor personally delivering bags of food or temporary housing materials and getting grateful hugs from his constituents. In fact, many of the bags the San Salvador government is using to deliver aid are emblazoned with Quijano's smiling face. The GANA web page is similarly filled with GANA party officials handing out bags of food or clothing.   In Santiago Texacuangos, the GANA party candidate came to bring aid to local shelters dressed in GANA orange, but was blocked by the local officers of the ARENA led municipal government.

With this influx of aid, the government is promising to make aid distribution transparent. Prior disaster relief efforts by the Salvadoran government have been met with charges of corruption and favoritism in aid distribution. Now the government has announced that it will make public all information about the distribution of aid and government contracting. A hot line has been set up for the reporting of corruption and irregularities in aid distribution.

But ordinary citizens have ignored political or religious differences and are simply pitching in to help their fellow Salvadorans impacted by the floods.   From private donations, the Salvadoran Foundation of Health (FUSAL) has made 172 shipments benefiting 23,579 families.  Salvadoran blogger Hunnapuh has written:

The population which has not been directly affected by the disaster and which has some means, looks not to party colors and has thrown itself into helping either the government, church, favorite service institution or private company, without distinguishing between tricolor, red, green, yellow, blue or orange or between Catholics and evangelicals.

Salvadorans in the US have set up a manner to donate to relief through text messages. Text the word SALVADOR to 20222 for a donation of $ 10. which will be directed to the Salvadoran American Humanitarian Foundation (SAHF) for disaster relief.

El Salvador is asking the US for relief from deportations. Mauricio Funes announced that he is requesting that the US suspend deporting Salvadorans and to continue in force Temporary Protected Status (TPS) which allows more than 200,000 Salvadorans to live in the US following the 2001 earthquakes. During the time period of the rains, the US deported 622 Salvadorans back into the country, and more than 18,000 in the previous 12 months.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

The Maras of El Salvador

Journalist Alma Guillermoprieto begins her new essay in the New York Review of Books with the line "I’m back in El Salvador for the first time in thirty years, and I don’t recognize a thing."    Thirty years ago, Guillermoprieto was one of two US journalists who broke the story of the massacre which had happened at El Mozote, in Morazan province.   


Today she is writing about a new type of violence afflicting El Salvador.  Her piece titled In the New Gangland of El Salvador explores the phenomenon of gangs in El Salvador with conversations in the poor neighborhoods where the gangs are flourishing and interviews of gang members in prison.


She writes:

It would be easy to lay the blame for this social and economic disaster exclusively at the feet of the party founded by Roberto D’Aubuisson—the Nationalist Republican Alliance, or ARENA, by its Spanish initials—which governed the country with evident if not single-minded interest in the well-being of the wealthy for twenty years after the peace accords were signed in 1992. (In 2009, Mauricio Funes, the candidate of the party founded by the former guerrillas, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, or FMLN, won the presidency.) But there is also the enormous fact of the war itself: the demolished roads and other infrastructure, the collapse of rural society, the rise of urban slums peopled by campesinos fleeing those remote areas of the country that were the war’s principal staging ground, the systematic practice of ruthlessness, the drastic increase in single-parent families, the loss of an educated elite, the huge stockpile of leftover weapons no one kept track of. None of this, however, adds up to a complete or satisfactory explanation for the proliferation of the maras, currently estimated to number some 25,000 members at large, with another 9,000 in prison.
Guillermoprieto does not try to provide us with that complete or satisfactory explanation, but this essay does offer a little more insight into the maras of El Salvador.

Al Jazeera covers the floods

As far as I can tell, Al Jazeera English has provided the only English language broadcast news coverage of the flooding in El Salvador. (The network has a history of good reporting from El Salvador). Here is the Al Jazeera video report on the Deluge of 2011:

A UN official estimated that the damages from October's floods in El Salvador could top $1 billion.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Health impacts of the widespread floods

The floodwaters are starting to recede in parts of El Salvador and the rain has stopped.   Public health concerns throughout the flooded areas are of immediate importance.   People have been crowded into shelters, flood waters have contaminated wells, and contact with the dirty water can cause disease.  Only diligent attention to providing clean water and sanitation will prevent outbreaks of illness.

Attention is being paid by a number of organizations.  Here is today's report of the Pan American Health Organization:

El Salvador.  The rains have opened dam reserves and blocked roads affecting 181 out of 262 municipalities of El Salvador. 2,000 square kilometers are now flooded which is equivalent to 10% of the entire national territory. 
Health Impacts.  Currently there 250,000 people affected and 38,682 persons displaced to 603 shelters located mostly in the departments of La Libertad, Usulutan, and La Paz. It is estimated that 12% of the displaced people in shelters will need temporary housing for 4 to 6 months. 
The Ministry of Health has reported increased cases of diarrhea, conjunctivitis, chickenpox, and dengue fever. A total of 159 health centers are affected including 17 with severe damages, 36 with moderate damages and 106 with minor damages. Hospital Soyapango which serves 290,000 has lost its power source. Hospital Sonsonate reported that there are limited surgical and maternity capacities as well as blocked roads to the hospital. Most health centers are experiencing floods and equipment damages.
The El Salvador Ministry of Health reports that it has been active providing care in the shelters and that the primary conditions found have been respiratory diseases and rashes. The Ministry has been providing health checks, mental health therapies and sanitation evaluations.  Bulletins of the Ministry of Health relating to the flooding appear here.

Our friends at Voices on the Border did a good overview on all these health issues in a post yesterday which I re-post here:

As floodwaters continue to recede, communities throughout El Salvador are starting to consider the short and long-term impact of the 1400 milimeters (55 inches) of rain that has fallen in the past week. One of the most immediate issues is public health. 
According to Eduardo Espinoza, Viceminister of Health, the most immediate public health concern in El Salvador is the 2,200 community wells contaminated by flooding, which threaten the availability of safe drinking water. The Health Ministry announced yesterday that it is distributing ‘Puriagua,’ a chlorine solution used to disinfect contaminated drinking water. Other organizations are also distributing chlorine-tablets and purified water. Although the wells pose a significant health concern, “the risk of outbreaks can be minimized” through prompt action to identify wells and provide clean drinking water, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). 
Flooding can increase the risk of communicable diseases in a number of ways – contaminated water can cause gastrointestinal diseases; floodwater can bring disease-carrying animals such as dogs, rats or mosquitoes into closer contact with humans; direct contact with waste carried by floodwater can cause skin disease; and exposure to weather conditions can lead to respiratory ailments. 
The most prevalent health concerns, so far, seem to be respiratory and skin problems, judging by the number of consultations at shelters nationwide. Out of 9,139 health consultations made by October 17th, 2,395 dealt with respiratory problems, primarily among the very young and the elderly. The Health Minister recommended that special care be taken to wrap these vulnerable groups warmly. Another 1,231 consultations dealt with skin problems. However, according to the World Health Organization, neither problem is “epidemic-prone.” 145 consultations dealt with gastrointestinal diseases and diarrhea. 
Other “epidemic-prone” diseases are being monitored closely. The Panamerican Health Organization (PAHO) has donated diagnostic kits to monitor the spread of H1N1, dengue, malaria, and a disease called leptospirosis carried by rodents and dogs. Espinoza reported five cases of chicken pox in the Municipality of Cojutepeque, which have been addressed with “isolation measures and antiviral treatment to contain the spread of the disease.” Espinoza also reported six cases of the H1N1 virus under isolation. “So far, there has been no case [of H1N1] in the shelters,” says Espinoza. 
Another public health problem is that flooding has damaged 138 health establishments, according to the Health Ministry. As just one example, the PAHO reports that the infrastructure at the Kidney Health Unit in the Lower Lempa has been “completely damaged” by more than two meters of water, “losing the medical equipment vital to treat renal failure.” The organization writes, “This unit treats 350 patients with chronic renal failure, who, currently, have no other alternative.” 
Dr. Anne Daul, a fellow with the the George Washington University department of Emergency Medicine, added that flood victims also need to be concerned about the psychological impact from loosing a home or even loved ones. She also warns that major catastrophes such as this can break down the social fabric, which puts women at risk of gender-based violence.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Deluge of 2011 through eyes of a child

Photo - El Faro
The sun started to come out today, and I'm not going to write much about the flooding in El Salvador. Instead, I'm going to encourage you to go view the photogallery from El Faro at this link. The gallery contains photos of children now living in a shelter who painted pictures of their experience.  Their pictures are worth more than a thousand of my words.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The flooding of the Lower Lempa region

The Lempa River is the longest river in El Salvador.   Winding through much of the country, it drains a large region.   Rivers in Guatemala and Honduras also flow into the Lempa.  A series of dams on the river provide hydro-electric power to the country.   As the river flows down towards the Pacific Ocean, it spreads into a broad flood plain known as the Bajo Lempa or Lower Lempa region of El Salvador.


Map of the Lower Lempa region (click to enlarge)


Because the Lempa River collects water from this broad area, the flooding from the Deluge of 2011 has been particularly severe there.  EcoViva, an NGO which partners with community organizations in the Lower Lempa region, described some of the impacts on its blog:

JIQUILISCO, El Salvador— A tropical depression in the Pacific, coupled with a weather front stemming from Hurricane Jova in the Atlantic, converged on El Salvador this weekend to cause what appears to be the largest disaster in a generation. Earthen levees along the Lempa River burst as an upstream dam released 9,500 cubic meters of water per second for over 12 hours, three times more water per second than the levees along the river were built to withstand.
At press time, the region had seen over 1.2 meters of rainfall accumulate over a seven day period, far eclipsing the historic impact of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 which saw the accumulation of 0.86 meters of rain. Government civil protection authorities estimate that over 48,000 people throughout El Salvador are now crowding into a system of over 500 flood shelters. The number of reported fatalities is currently 32, with two people reported as missing. Areas hardest hit by flood waters include the provinces of La Paz, Sonsonate and Usulután.
On Saturday, October 15, the President of El Salvador declared a state of emergency across the nation, with special attention to coastal areas like the Lower Lempa River Basin, located in the state of Usulután’s Jiquilisco municipality. Approximately 40 villages were completely flooded out in that region. Dozens of communities were cut off from contact for up to 48 hours as roads were completely washed away. For the last four days, community groups have been working with local and federal authorities to reach isolated communities and evacuate everyone effectively.
In the Jiquilisco area, over 7,000 people are currently staying in schools, community centers and other makeshift shelters.

At its height, the river was some 30 feet above normal.  This video illustrates vividly the pain of evacuation as waters of the Lempa spread everywhere:



The SHARE Foundation, an NGO working with communities in El Salvador, also wrote about the evacuations in the Lower Lempa:
As Irma from ACUDESBAL, a local organization, shared with us, “here in the Bajo Lempa, we’re all one family. People care about each other, and worry about each other.” In the end, it was the young men in the ACUDESBAL-trained rescue group that were able to evacuate stranded community members.

While some people wait for evacuation, others have hunkered down where they are. Communities like Los Naranjos, La Pita and Puerto Nuevo, South of San Carlos Lempa in Tecoluca, have been cut off since Friday, when the road flooded. These communities have sought refuge in community centers until the water recedes, but they have no access to food, water or other basic supplies. The only way to access these families, and bring them medicine and sustenance, is by boat.

Other communities face yet another problem—the places where they have sought shelter are “unofficial,” not recognized by the government. At these unofficial shelters, there is no government support for supplies. There are shelters throughout the country without enough food, drinking water or sanitation supplies (toilet paper, soap) to provide for people. The Human Rights Ombudsperon, Oscar Luna, has said that Civil Protection has not provided the assistance necessary for those affected. Meléndez, Director of Civil Protection, has confirmed that there are over 10,000 people in “unofficial” shelters who have received no government support.
Voices on the Border, another NGO working with the communities of the Lower Lempa, reports on some successes in the evacuation:
Some good news to report; the communities of Nueva Esperanza, Ciudad Romero, Zamorano and others that are completely underwater have been completely evacuated. We have been worried about a group of 57 people (last night we reported 40, but that number was revised upward this morning) were stuck on the top of the Nueva Esperanza Community center and then the bell tower of the church last night. We just received word that they reached the emergency shelter at about noon today.
There's a gallery of pictures at this link.

Crop losses in the region will be particularly severe in the Lower Lempa region.   Voices described one scene of farmers trying to harvest as the waters rose:
This afternoon a member of Voices staff came across an agricultural cooperative in Mata de Piña where workers were trying to salvage their corn crop that they were almost ready to harvest. Members of the cooperative were working in waist-deep water, picking, shucking, and grinding corn in hopes of salvaging something. This is a bleak reminder of what is to come in the weeks and months ahead. The region has lost all its crops and will be dependent on food aide programs for the foreseeable future. Today – we’ll just focus on the basics… food, clothing, and shelter.
The flood waters which have inundated the Lower Lempa region got there after being discharged by the dams upstream.   The dams are managed by the the Rio Lempa Hydro-electric Executive Commission ("CEL" in Spanish).  



Over the course of the torrential rains, CEL began releasing ever greater amounts of water through its dams, especially the September 15 dam above the Lower Lempa.   The releases were said to be necessary because the dams had reached their capacity and faced pressure which could only be relieved through the discharge of huge amounts of water.  The role of those discharges are now being criticized by groups in the affected areas.   From Voices on the Border:
ACUDESBAL (the local inter-communal association) and CESTA (an environmental NGO) published a press release denouncing the role of the September 15th hydroelectric dam in the near total devestation of many communities in the Lower Lempa. The release says “During this climatic phenomena, the CEL again released 11,500 cubic meters per second, but unlike Hurricane Mitch, this amount of water was released for a prolonged period of time, and the river bed is more clogged [than in '98'], which caused flooding from San Marcos Lempa all the way down to Montecristo Island”. The release demands that CEL accept responsibility for their negligence, especially after an interview with the CEL president Irving Tochez, where he claims that CEL is in no way responsible for the devestation, but rather mitigated further disaster by ‘helping to retain water and releasing it in a controlled manner’.
According to this afternoon's hydrological bulletin from SNET, releases from the September 15 dam are down to 2300 cubic meters / second, and the river level is gradually going down.

The CEL, recognizing that its release of waters inevitably leads to the flooding downstream, has been taking steps to help improve its image.   The CEL has been sending relief supplies for families in shelters in the affected areas.  The head of the CEL and the Minister of Agriculture made a joint trip this week to meet with community leaders in the Lower Lempa to talk about efforts to minimize the impact of the floods.

I have no way to comment on whether the CEL was acting responsibly.   Clearly the past 10 days' rains have been unprecedented.   With much more rain falling in the drainage basin of the Lempa River than has ever fallen before, officials were certainly going to need to open the floodgates to a large flow of water.   Whether they could have released less water, without compromising the safety of the dams, is probably something that only scientific studies with lots of data will answer in the future.

Voices on the Border, the SHARE Foundations, and EcoViva are all accepting donations to help in their work supporting the victims of the Deluge of 2011 in the Lower Lempa region and elsewhere.

Deluge of 2011 -- Day 10


Ten days of rain have produced dramatic rain totals throughout the country as this chart from El Salvador's weather service, the SNET, shows.   The most rain has fallen at Huizucar in the south central part of the country, where an amazing 1470 millimeters (57.9 inches) of rain has fallen.   In a sizable area (orange and yellow on the map), more than a meter of rain has fallen.

The rain was still falling today, with  20-70mm of rain falling in locations in the central volcanic chain in the country.  In Puerto Parada, in the western part of the country, officials continued to evacuate inhabitants as the Rio Grande de San Miguel was rising after having already breached its levee in two places.  Rio Paz in Ahuachapan was also overflowing its banks again.

On Thursday, however, the entry of a cold front is supposed to mark the end of the rains in most of the country.  Next Monday, schools will reopen for the first time since the emergency was declared except for those schools being used as emergency shelters.

President Funes went before the international press today to say that the international community lacked a clear understanding of the magnitude of the crisis in El Salvador and the rest of Central America.  The Salvadoran president blamed part of this lack of international media attention on the fact that the weather conditions creating this calamity lacked a name like "Hurricane Mitch" but instead was "Tropical Depression 12-E."  He emphasized that this unnamed disaster would need an international response similar to Mitch in 1998.    Funes called these 10 days of rain, the most devastating weather disaster in the history of the country.

The tally of the number of people taking refuge in shelters rose significantly today.   The official statistic is now more than 48,700 persons in 566 shelters.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Deluge of 2011 -- International aid coming to El Salvador


The chart above shows the relative magnitude of the rains of the past 8 days in El Salvador compared to other weather disasters.   While it should be remembered that rainfall amounts are very localized, and that the highest totals occurred in only a very few spots, it is still clear that this has been a very extreme event.

At this link you can see a current radar map from weather.com which will play back the weather from the previous 36 hours.  You can also follow links from that page to see the current weather forecast.  Perhaps the most important forecast is the hydrological forecast from SNET which can be found here and which contains forecasted river levels and risks of flooding.  The forecast is in Spanish, but Google translate works pretty well with it for those who need an English translation.

International aid efforts are starting to help alleviate some of the needs in El Salvador.  Taiwan, Spain, the United States, Venezuela have all promised aid.  International humanitarian organizations are also at work.  For example, the World Food Program has been distributing emergency rations from a stockpile kept in El Salvador:
In coordination with the government of El Salvador, WFP has provided High Energy Biscuits to over 7,500 people – a total of 10 metric tons – who are currently in shelters in 27 communities. In Honduras more than 5,000 people have been assisted with 55 metric tons of food rations in close collaboration with local authorities whereas in Nicaragua, WFP in close cooperation with SINAPRED is prepositioning food in various areas of the country, including the indigenous areas of Rio Coco and Bocay. 
The regional response involves WFP’s Central American Humanitarian Response Centre in El Salvador. They were responsible for transporting 10 metric tons of High Energy Biscuits to Guatemala over the weekend and providing assistance with food distributions in El Salvador.  The Centre stocks primarily High Energy Biscuits which are available for quick regional deployments and complement the stocks of non-food items stored at the United Nations Humanitarian Response Depot (UNHRD) base in Panama.

ReliefWeb is a clearinghouse internet site where international relief organizations share information on natural and humanitarian disasters worldwide. The site is now aggregating information on these floods at this page. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has published an assessment report on the floods (in Spanish) which provides an overview of the impacts on the various nations in Central America and humanitarian needs.

Despite these efforts, there are still many areas which have received little or no real support, sometimes because roads are blocked by landslides and fallen trees.   Sometimes because they have just been overlooked.   Twitter today had many tweets taking the form  "Families in community XYZ need food"

I came across the following description on the website Examiner.com that in some ways summarizes the nature of this tragedy:
Central America doesn’t have the same standard of housing that many nearby countries adhere to. Many ‘houses’ are built from substandard materials such as wood, plastic and corrugated tin. Occasionally locally made cinder blocks are available but these are more expensive than recycled materials and when the rains come, ‘water-proof’ isn’t a condition anyone can count on. Having a simple roof over the family is about as good as it gets and when day after day of torrential downpours hammers the home-made hand-crafted structure they’ve built, odds are that something’s going to give. Adding to the misery, many homes are built on unstable hillsides or in flood-prone low lying areas. The best land is taken by the agricultural interests and the campesinos build on land that nobody else wants. Simply put, it’s a recipe for disaster when the rains are more than usual and that’s exactly what’s happened. When the clouds clear and the rivers eventually fall, the numbers of dead and missing will be counted again. The roads, those lifeblood routes of commerce, will be repaired some time later and the numerous bridges will be jury-rigged to allow the resumption of traffic. It’ll be a while before Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua return to normal: for those who’ve lost their homes, families and belongings, it may never happen.

The deluge of 2011


As of Monday night, October 17, the rains had not ceased in El Salvador (although things are a little better in the east of the country). The rainfall measured in some locations exceeded an extraordinary 1.2 meters over the past week, surpassing the rainfall total of Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

Here are the latest statistics for El Salvador:

  • 150,000 people have reportedly been affected in some way by the rains.  
  • The official death toll has risen to 32. 
  •  More than 32,000 people have been evacuated from 149 communities. 
  •  Some 21,500 are living in 223 shelters across the country. 
  •  More than 18,400 houses have been damaged by floods and landslides.
  • At least 576 landslides have been recorded
  • 10 bridges have collapsed. 
See a collection of images of the floods here.

Schools continue to be suspended in much of the country until further notice.  A number of schools have been damaged by the flooding.

 El Salvador's National Assembly passed a resolution for three days of national mourning and a 60 day disaster declaration. During those 60 days, international aid goods and supplies can come into the country duty free.

The following infographic from La Prensa shows the rainfall accumulations from October 10 through Sunday, October 16:



The English language press has only barely started to cover this story.

From AFP:
SAN SALVADOR — Civil defense officials across Central America were on high alert as the heavy rain that has pounded the region for more than a week showed no sign of abating. More than 80 people have been killed over the past week in mudslides and flooding across the mountainous region, home to 42 million people. 
Rain-swollen rivers have destroyed bridges and damaged highways, while flooding has destroyed crops and damaged thousands of homes. The toll is expected to rise as reports from isolated villages begin to trickle in -- and in the coming days officials fear more mudslides from rain-saturated soil, food shortages in faraway towns, and health problems due to water-borne diseases. 
Those killed include 32 in El Salvador, 29 in Guatemala, 13 in Honduras and eight in Nicaragua, according to local officials. 
Hard-hit El Salvador on Monday launched a worldwide appeal for humanitarian assistance due to the intense rain. Aid has already begun pouring in from Taiwan, Spain, the United States, Venezuela and a host of other countries, Foreign Minister Hugo Martinez told a press conference, adding Taipei had donated some $300,000 in flood relief. 
Alarm bells were ringing over a pending malnutrition crisis throughout the poverty-stricken region after heavy rains washed away crops in areas where thousands of families rely on small-scale farming for their nutrition needs. 
Officials blamed the effects of global warming for the spate of deadly rains and flooding. "Climate change is not something that is coming in the future, we are already suffering its effects," said Raul Artiga with the Central American Commission on Environment and Development (CCAD). 
In El Salvador, at least 10 bridges have collapsed and another 10 show serious damage, while 14 highways have serious damage, according to a preliminary report. Public Works Minister Gerson Martinez estimated the damages at "several million dollars." 
El Salvador has experienced record rainfall of 1.2 meters (four feet) in one week, shattering the record set by Hurricane Mitch in 1998.
From the BBC:
El Salvador's President Mauricio Funes said the country was "really being put to the test". "The situation has got even worse, it's still raining heavily in various parts of the country," Mr Funes, said in an address to the nation, late on Sunday. He said more than 20,000 people had been evacuated and entire communities had been cut off due to impassable roads. 
The government launched an appeal for international humanitarian aid, with the rains forecast to continue through Monday. Spain has responded by sending 20 tonnes of supplies, including tents and hygiene kits. 
In Ciudad Arce, 40 km (24 miles) northwest of the capital, San Salvador, a landslide swept away five houses, killing at least nine people, officials said.
La Prensa has created an interactive Google map which identifies the locations of landslides, blocked roads and fatalities.

You can help.   A number of organizations are making fund-raising appeals for disaster response.  Some of them include:




Please note that there are many more El Salvador-based organizations actively providing relief and soliciting funds as well. I have listed the organizations above because they are reputable and will be more accessible for the English speaking readers of the blog.  For some ways to help within El Salvador, see the listing in this blog post by Hunnapuh.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Fr. Dean Brackley Presente!



I received the sad news this afternoon, that a dear friend, Father Dean Brackley, a Jesuit priest and teacher at the University of Central America in San Salvador passed away after a months long struggle with cancer.  A month ago, Fr. Dean was awarded an honorary doctorate from Marquette University.  Here was the presentation from the award of that degree:

Rev. Dean Brackley, S.J., is a professor of theology at the University of Central America (UCA) in San Salvador, and in 2010 he held the Rev. Francis C. Wade, S.J., Chair at Marquette University. Father Brackley entered the Society of Jesus in 1964 and was ordained a priest in 1976. He earned a doctoral degree in Religious Social Ethics from the University of Chicago Divinity School in 1980, and has traveled a vocational path marked by spiritual creativity, moral courage, and an unfailing companionship with the poor. 
Father Brackley’s early life in ministry was spent as a community organizer on Manhattan’s Lower East Side and in the South Bronx, exposing him to the eroding conditions of poverty and violence. As a faculty member at Fordham University he was known for his profound impact on the lives of students and for scholarly pursuits that brought theological and spiritual questions into deep engagement with the concerns of the real world. It was this commitment to the human and social implications of the Gospel that brought Father Brackley to the most significant decision of his life. When six Jesuit priests, their housekeeper, and her daughter were massacred at the University of Central America in San Salvador in 1989, Father Brackley quietly and heroically volunteered to take the place of one of the martyred Jesuits. Responding to the exhortation of Christ to “lay down one’s life for one’s friends,” he would thereafter never leave the side of the Salvadoran people on a permanent basis. 
Serving at Universidad Centroamericana since 1990, Father Brackley has overseen the School for Religious Education, spearheaded pastoral outreach programs, and established new scholarships for students who go on to serve in parishes and faith communities throughout the country. Father Brackley has never failed to balance his demanding academic and administrative responsibilities with the personal and pastoral care of God’s people. He remains a compassionate and priestly presence to residents of a poor urban community in San Salvador. 
During his years of service at UCA, Father Brackley has hosted thousands of students and faculty members from North American Jesuit universities who come to El Salvador in order to honor, understand, and connect their lives to the sacrifice of the Jesuit martyrs. As an American whose life gives witness to deep and intentional solidarity with the poor, his ministry has grown to include the teaching and pastoral care of these pilgrims, acting as a bridge between the familiarity of their university lives in the United States and the joy amid suffering that they experience in the Salvadoran people. He holds their holy confusion with reverence, helping the visitors understand that, in Christ, there is no “other.” In all of his work, he brings the voice of the voiceless to bear on important issues.

Father Brackley is the author of numerous articles and two books, The Call to Discernment in Troubled Times: New Perspectives on the Transformative Wisdom of Ignatius of Loyola and Divine Revolution: Salvation and Liberation in Catholic Thought. His books, articles, and public lectures are important contributions to the canon of Christian spiritual writers. 
At a Christmas Eve address shortly before his death, Archbishop Oscar Romero of El Salvador encouraged the faithful to live in such a way that, “We are never ashamed of saying, ‘The Church of the Poor.’” Indeed Father Dean Brackley is never ashamed. Rather it is in the poor that he finds the fullness of his vocation as a priest, intellectual, and advocate. It is in the poor that he recognizes – and helps others recognize – the face of Christ. 
Because his life exemplifies the very heart of Marquette University’s mission, Reverend President, I hereby recommend Father Dean Brackley of the Society of Jesus for the Marquette University degree of Doctor of Religious Studies, honoris causa.

Weather map for El Salvador

The current weather map at this link shows the weather systems which have been affecting El Salvador and also includes weather forecasts for the coming days.

The following map shows rain totals across the country on Saturday through Sunday morning:



Saturday, October 15, 2011

Blog Action Day -- The Rains and Food

October 16 is the annual Blog Action Day, and the global topic this year is Food.   In light of the weather emergency continuing in El Salvador, I will deal with the implications of the ongoing rains on food issues in the country.

The country is under a state of emergency.   In a press conference Saturday night, president Funes called for all elements of Salvadoran society to pull together.   As of tonight some 13 thousand Salvadorans have been forced to flee their homes, and the death toll has risen to 10.

 Emergency efforts to distribute food are underway for families forced from their homes.  Donations are being received from many sources, and the Salvadoran armed forces are participating in distribution of emergency aid.

  This picture from LPG shows Scouts receiving and organizing food donations.


A tweet from LaPrensa reported that some 4000 pupusas are being made and donated by an association of pupuserias in Olocuilta to distribute to affected families.

The San Miguelito market in San Salvador sent hot meals to evacuated communities in the Lower Lempa:



As noted in Friday's post, at that time experts were forecasting losses of as much as 40% of the country's harvest of the staple foods corn, rice and beans.   Other reports suggest that as much as 60% of the bean crop could be lost, and coffee production could also be impacted.  This destroys the hopes I wrote about six weeks ago, that a record bean harvest might help bring down the cost of food in the country.

This chart compares this weather emergency to other recent rain and flooding events, comparing the amount of rain in millimeters during the entire event and during the first 24 hours.   The rains from this tropical depression are already the 6th worst in the past 42 years, and the rains are forecast for three or four more days:

The needs in the country are basic -- shelter from the rain and floodwaters, clothing for what has been lost, food for the hungry, and long term works for mitigation of risk in many areas.   Also needed, as my friend Beth points out, is psycho-social care for the victims.

Several organizations are making calls for donations.  Consider these organizations if you want to help:




More discoveries at Joya de Cerén archaeological site

Archaeologists working at Joya de Cerén in El Salvador have uncovered an ancient road in that Mayan village. An article in Science Daily describes the discovery:

A University of Colorado Boulder-led team excavating a Maya village in El Salvador buried by a volcanic eruption 1,400 years ago has unexpectedly hit an ancient white road that appears to lead to and from the town, which was frozen in time by a blanket of ash. The road, known as a "sacbe," is roughly 6 feet across and is made from white volcanic ash from a previous eruption that was packed down and shored up along its edges by residents living there in roughly A.D. 600, said CU-Boulder Professor Payson Sheets, who discovered the buried village known as Ceren near the city of San Salvador in 1978. In Yucatan Maya, the word "sacbe" (SOCK'-bay) literally means "white way" or "white road" and is used to describe elevated ancient roads typically lined with stone and paved with white lime plaster and that sometimes connected temples, plazas and towns. 
The sacbe at the buried village of Ceren -- which had canals of water running on each side -- is the first ever discovered at a Maya archaeology site that was built without bordering paving stones, said Sheets.
Read the rest of the Science Daily article for more information on the ancient community at Joya de Cerén.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Update on damage from rains



The rains which started on October 10 have not yet ceased.  President Mauricio Funes has declared a state of emergency (video) throughout the country due to the rains' impact.  The saturated soil can hold no more of the rain which falls, producing floods and mudslides in at-risk areas.   The death toll has climbed to six.    La Prensa Grafica reported today that 15,000 families have been affected in some way by the rains, 6548 persons are currently in 92 shelters across the country.  Rivers have overflowed their banks in 47 locations, and there have been 384 mudslides.  Schools remain closed.

The rains in El Salvador are part of a tropical depression bringing tragedy across Central America as the Boston Globe reports:
Heavy rains generated by a low-pressure system hammered Central America for a third day Friday, putting officials on alert in countries where mudslides and swollen rivers have already killed 36 people. At least 21 people have been killed in Guatemala and thousands of others were evacuated or saw their homes destroyed by the incessant downpours. 
In El Salvador, rivers have overflowed their banks, destroying villages and prompting an evacuation of about 4,000 people from their homes, the country's disaster management office said in a statement Friday. 
In Honduras, six people have been killed in floods and the roads connecting the nation to Guatemala have been destroyed. Other communities have been left isolated by the floods. In Nicaragua, four people have died this week. The system is expected to hover over the region for the next couple of days, generating more rainfall, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
Very worrying is a front page story in El Diario de Hoy quoting experts' views that as much as 40% of the country's harvests of the basic grains -- rice, corn and beans -- could be lost.   Such crop losses would increase rural poverty and prevent any easing of already high food prices.

English language bloggers in El Salvador are writing about this weather emergency.  Voices from El Salvador has been providing regular updates on the blog and on Facebook on the impacts for the communities of the lower Lempa River region near the coast where flooding is a problem.   Those communities are threatened as the government releases water from the dams up river to relieve pressure on the dams.

Blogger Alisha writes about what it's like living in the ongoing rains.   Jen notes the alerts throughout the country and the widespread reports of damage, while the Crispaz blog has government estimates of needed relief funds.  Kathy notes that there is a real need for prayer when "there are three really big things to worry about: landslides, flash floods and rivers over-flowing their banks."

And three motorcyclists on their way to from north to south through the Americas, posted a video blog of the rain they found in El Salvador.

This might be a good time to make an extra contribution to your favorite NGO working in El Salvador.

This week of rain is a good example of why El Salvador, along with other countries in Central America, are in the top 10 for countries most exposed to natural disasters according to the UN's WorldRiskReport 2011.

You can follow updates (mostly in Spanish) on Twitter with the #lluviasv  tag.  There is a photo album here with a collection of images of the flooding from the Salvadoran media. 


Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Rains pound El Salvador causing flooding and landslides



Heavy rains, caused by a tropical depression off the Pacific coast have caused flooding and landslides in various parts of El Salvador.   School has been suspended in 8 of the country's 14 departments.    The weather system has left 18 people dead across Central America, including two women in El Salvador who died in separate landslides.

Certain towns in the department of Ahuachapan in the west are under a red alert for flooding, while much of the coastal region is under an orange alert and much of the rest of the country under a yellow alert.  The rains could continue for another 36 hours.

According to La Prensa Grafica, as of 10 a.m. this morning, there are approximately 1800 displaced people in shelters, 10 rivers have overflowed their banks, and there were 26 reported landslides.

You can see current weather radar images from El Salvador's national weather agency here.   La Prensa has a map with rainfall totals here and a gallery of images from the flooding here.  

Sunday, October 09, 2011

Millennium Compact -- 4 year anniversary

At the end of September 2011, the Millennium Challenge Account project in El Salvador celebrated its fourth anniversary and its achievements to date.  The Millennium Challenge is a US foreign aid program aimed at combating poverty in the countries which receive the funds.

An article in DiarioCoLatino has the comments of José Ángel Quirós, executive director of FOMILENIO, the Salvadoran government agency charged with administering the programs in the country.    The program has a goal of alleviating the poverty of more than 150 thousand Salvadorans and improving the quality of life of 850 thousand inhabitants of the northern zone of the country.  According to Quirós, after 4 years FOMILENIO  had been able to provide training to more than 8500 persons, awarded 3000 scholarships and constructed 20 educational institutions, and created at least 9000 direct jobs.

At the anniversary event, Alex Segovia, Technical Secretary to the Salvadoran president, asserted that when the Funes administration started two years ago the program was is risk of being cut off for lack of execution, but now it was one of the best executed programs in the world.

The US Embassy in El Salvador wrote:
El Salvador’s compact represents the largest concerted economic development program in the Western Hemisphere. In its first four years of implementation, $379.5 million have already been invested in four broad project areas: education and training, community development, productive development, and road connectivity. This last category includes the compact’s most visible project, the $242 million Carretera Longitudinal Norte, a 218 km highway that will connect 94 municipalities of El Salvador’s Northern Zone.

An aspect of Millennium Challenge projects is an attention to transparency and measuring outcomes.  For example, you can read here the plan for the US and El Salvador to measure the success of developing jobs and improving household income.   You can also go to the US web site for the El Salvdor Compact to review a Table of Key Performance Indicators.   Reviewing that data, shows that while the program has been achieving its goals in the areas of agricultural and small business training and education, it still has quite a distance to go on water and sanitation projects and construction of the northern highway (only 13 of 195 kilometers are completed).

When the Millennium Challenge grant to El Salvador was announced during the presidencies of George W. Bush in the United States and Tony Saca in El Salvador, critics on the left reacted with suspicion, calling it simply a program to build a road to allow gold mining companies to exploit natural resources.   That criticism always seemed misplaced to me given the real need for improvements in electrical, water, educational and road infrastructure in the poorest zone of the country.    Sometimes people need to recognize that a US-sponsored program can actually do real good in the world.

The Salvadoran government is also reaching out to the Salvadoran diaspora, looking for investment back in their home country, especially in the areas getting development assistance from the Millennium project.


Thursday, October 06, 2011

Remittances and household finance


A recent article in La Prensa Grafica explores the importance of remittances, the money sent from relatives living and working abroad, in supporting Salvadoran families. The article pulls data from the recent 2010 multi-purpose poll of households conducted by the Salvadoran government.


Some of the statistics: 
  •  More than 337,000 families in El Salvador receive remittances, equalling 21% of the households in the country.
  •  91.6% of the families direct their remittances towards consumption, while only 1.4% say they save some or all of what they receive from abroad.
  • Remittances constitute 17% of the national economy, one of the highest levels in Latin America.
  • Remittances have reduced levels of poverty in El Salvador. 70% of of the households which receive remittances are not in poverty.
  • Most households receive between $46 and $113 per month in remittances.
     
  • More than 90% of Salvadorans have a relative living in the US.
Remittances sent into El Salvador have totaled $2.422 billion through the first eight months of 2011, an increase of 4.8% over the previous year.

Sunday, October 02, 2011

CDA issues report on El Salvador.

The Center for Democracy in the Americas published a report on El Salvador on Friday, September 30.   This update focuses primarily on the judicial system and crime and security issues.  It's a useful summary of current developments in those areas.  Get it here|.

Saturday, October 01, 2011

The killer of Oscar Romero identified

It has been a mystery for more than 30 years.   Who pulled the trigger of the sharpshooter's rifle which murdered Oscar Romero?   Citing sources close to the plot, a Salvadoran newspaper has now identified the killer.  From the Super Martyrio blog:

If a martyr is killed, does the killer’s actual identity matter for the purpose of raising the martyr to the honor of the altars? It matters in the case of Óscar Romero, according to Bishop Gregorio Rosa Chávez, a Salvadoran cleric familiar with Archbishop Romero’s beatification process. “When we were starting the process,” Bishop Rosa says, the Vatican “asked us three questions: who killed him, why, and the context in which he served as Archbishop of San Salvador.” He adds, “Who killed him was the only question we were unable to answer,” at the time. (G. Fajardo and F. Valencia, Msgr. Rosa Chávez asks Romero shooter to contribute to the truth, CO LATINO, September 17, 2011—in Spanish.)  
New information published in El Salvador in the last days would answer that question, purporting to establish that National Guard Deputy Sargeant Marino Samayoa Acosta was the shadowy figure who pulled the trigger on that fateful evening of March 24, 1980, having been selected for the job by a man named Mario Molina, who was the son of Arturo Armando Molina, a Salvadoran army colonel who assumed the presidency under widespread allegations of fraud. The new information appears to complete the factual findings in Saravia v. Doe, a 2004 U.S. federal case in which Capt. Álvaro Saravia was found liable, in absentia, for his “role in coordinating and planning the assassination of Archbishop Romero,” and in a U.N. Truth Commission Report which found that, “Former Major Roberto D’Aubuisson gave the order to assassinate the Archbishop and gave precise instructions to members of his security service (including Saravia), acting as a ‘death squad’, to organize and supervise the assassination.”
The Diario CoLatino article, drawing on several sources, provides a narrative of D'Aubuisson's conspiracy to kill archbishop Romero from the order given by D'Aubuisson to carry out what had already been planned, through the sharpshooter's shot from the entrance of the chapel at Divnia Providencia, to the report of "mission accomplished."

The published news articles do not state where Samayoa is today or whether he is still alive.   If he is located, the question will again be front and center -- how should the sins of the civil war be addressed?