Friday, January 30, 2009

Presidential race tightens

An AP story describes a new opinion poll finding that the leading candidates for president in El Salvador, Rodrigo Avila of ARENA and Mauricio Funes of the FMLN are tied, suggesting a post-January elections bounce for Avila:

SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador -- El Salvador's presidential race has tightened, with the leading candidates in a virtual tie and likely facing a runoff election, according to a poll released Friday.

Mauricio Funes, a TV journalist who would become the first leftist president of El Salvador since the country's bloody civil war, had about 50 percent support in other previous polls. Now he has 38 percent, compared to 35 percent for Rodrigo Avila of the ruling conservative Arena party, according to Consulta Mitofsky.

The survey had a margin of error of 2 percentage points, meaning it is possible that Funes could be trailing slightly.

Funes represents the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, a guerrilla group-turned-political party.

Other respondents preferred different candidates, were undecided or declined to say how they would vote on March 15.

Consulta Mitofsky, an independent pollster based in Mexico, questioned 1,200 likely voters face to face from Jan. 23-25 in 60 of El Salvador's 262 municipalities.

Mitofsky polls typically show greater strength for ARENA than other opinion polls in El Salvador, and some have criticized the polling as being done by telephone from Mexico.


A new poll released by La Prensa Grafica on February 1, showed Funes leading Avila 39% to 29%, suggesting continued strength for the FMLN's candidate.


Anonymous said...

Better a telephone poll from Mexico than a poll by a bunch of communist leaning Jesuits that can't be objective.

Anonymous said...

Some people have suggested that Mitofski is obviosly biased toward ARENA. However in the past election Mitofski proved beyond any reasonable doubt that their polls were accurate.

I just want to add that according to most polls Violeta Menjivar had a 15 point lead, and Quijano won. Funes also claims to have a 15 point lead... I'm just sayin'

Anonymous said...

je,je, je, je, je, a telephone poll, je, je, je, je, je, je, who is going to believe it?

je, je, je, je, je, je, je, by the way anonymous, can you show us proof of al least 3 polls that gave Violeta Manjivar a lead of 15 points?

I never saw it... or are you just making that up? je, je, ej, just what I thought.

Anonymous said...

Yeah... right.

La alcaldesa dijo sentirse contenta y entusiasmada y comparó con otras elecciones los comicios de hoy, “como los de mayor presencia de votantes y esto favorece nuestro triunfo”.

Las últimas encuestas de opinión pública han reiterado una ventaja de 15 puntos a favor de Menjívar, frente a su principal adversario político, el arenero Norman Quijano. Para la alcaldesa, esta es la segunda ocasión que está corriendo por el cargo.

“Entre más vote la población, nosotros tendremos más amplio el margen del triunfo”, aseveró Menjívar.

wrogner said...

Anyone who owns anything or has any job is praying for an Arena win. The FMLN, while differently labeled, is still the communist party. I travel there often. The country has improved dramatically in the past decade (and has the best roads in central america). An FMLN win will set them back.