Wednesday, November 28, 2007

FMLN leads in most recent poll

In recent public opinion polling by the University of Central America, and reported by El Faro, the FMLN leads all other parties in voter preferences for upcoming elections for president, city mayors and legislative deputies. The FMLN's lead is 7 percentage points over ARENA in all three categories:

Party

Mayors

Deputies

President

FMLN

31.5%

32.3%

34.5%

ARENA

25.4%

25.2%

27.0%

PCN

3.8%

3.6%

2.3%

PDC

3.8%

2.6%

2.3%

CD

1.3%

1.7%

0.6%

FDR

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

Another party

0.7%

0.5%

0.4%

Don't know/my vote is a secret

29.3%

29.6%

28.8%

No one

4.1%

4.3%

4.1%

Total

100%

100%

100%



Persons polled were asked, if the election were this Sunday, which party they are likely to vote for in the three categories of races. Obviously a poll more than 14 months before any of these elections does not have a lot of predictive value, but it is interesting to see the FMLN with a strong lead, something which has not happened in recent years. This no doubt reflects the party's pragmatic choice of Mauricio Funes as a presidential candidate, combined with the population's growing disenchantment with ARENA's failure to address crime and economic problems. The FMLN may also be benefited by persons knowing Funes as the party's candidate, while ARENA has yet to create its presidential ticket.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

In both 1998 (leading up to 1999 presidential elections) and 2003 (leading up to 2004 elections) the FMLN was ahead in these same kind of preference polls. In the earlier election Marina de Avilles, the then Ombudswoman for Human Rights was ahead in preference before the FMLN primary elections debacles that resulted in Facundo Guardado, an ex guerrilla commander, being chosen as the candidate.

In 2003 the FMLN was also ahead in the preference polls but then chose the former guerrilla commander Schafik Handal and then with combined with the systematic and dirty smear campaign that included lies and fear tactics about mass deportations of Salvadorans from the U.S. if the Handal won the FMLN lost in the first round. Would the FMLN have done better without ARENA and the U.S. smear and fear tactics? Probably. They might have even forced a second round, but truth be known, Handal was so hopelessly the wrong candidate that it's not certain the FMLN could have won. Hopefully Funes is a stronger and better candidate with more mainstream appeal.

Anonymous said...

Here's the reaction of ARENA and their PCN lapdogs to the FMLN being ahead in the polls.... planning changes to the elections that will facilitate fraud.

http://www.diariocolatino.com/es/20071128/nacionales/49691/

El-Visitador said...

Certainly if anybody messes with the current citizen-led election system it would be a shame and would go a long way towards delegitimizing Salvadorean democracy.

Anonymous and FMLN are absolutely correct, therefore in denouncing any moves that would lead to the Elections Court appointing people to man the polling booths, as opposed to regular citizens nominated by each party, and who therefore form a genuine People's Poll Court —equilibrium and fairness are guaranteed by tens of thousands of regular people, with opposing views, working together and certifying each poll.

However, wasn't it the lefties who complained about today's system where the parties nominate citizens? And now they complain that the Elections Court would nominate?

What gives? Are they lunatics, or just demagogues?

Anonymous said...

The best thing in Saca's speech to the IRI (excerpts in today's LPG Departmento 15 section) was the bit where he said you cannot fashion governments that are tailor-made, like made-to-order suits. Which is what the left does. If the Elections Court favors them, they are in favor. If it hinders their schemes, they take to the street. All of Hugo Chavez' constitutional reforms: do you think they are driven by the needs of the Venezuelan political system, or by the needs of Hugo Chavez??? Saca is right -- this is all part of an "effervescence" goign on in Latin America. Hopefully it will be just a hiccup, but it will probably get worse before it gets better. Hopefully, young democracies like in El Salvador are strong enough not to get derailed.

Anonymous said...

Who is the candidate the FMLN is beating? What -- there isn't one?? Well, *that's* a fair fight: "our guy -- or nobody?"

Anonymous said...

The best thing in Saca's speech to the IRI (excerpts in today's LPG Departmento 15 section) was the bit where he said you cannot fashion governments that are tailor-made, like made-to-order suits. Which is what the left does. If the Elections Court favors them, they are in favor. If it hinders their schemes, they take to the street. All of Hugo Chavez' constitutional reforms: do you think they are driven by the needs of the Venezuelan political system, or by the needs of Hugo Chavez??? Saca is right -- this is all part of an "effervescence" goign on in Latin America. Hopefully it will be just a hiccup, but it will probably get worse before it gets better. Hopefully, young democracies like in El Salvador are strong enough not to get derailed.

I THINK WE HAVE HAD A TAYLOR MADE GOVERNMENT IN SACA. HE DOES NOT DO AHYTHING ON HIS OWN, FIRST BECAUSE HE DOES NOT HAVE THE BRAINS OR THE POLITICAL FREDOM, OR BECAUSE HE IS JUST ANOTHER PUPET.
NOW, WHO IS THIS IRI?, A WHOLE BUNCH OF RIGHT WING WACKOS, RUSH LIMBO TYPES, BLACK WATER SUPPOTERS, KILLERS OF CHILDREN IN THE NAME OF WHAT?. LIBERTIES? LIBERTIES TO CORPORATIONS?

Tambopaxi said...

Regarding the last, semi-coherent inquiry regarding IRI, my guess is that Saca was speaking before the International Republican Institute, which is a kind of combo research/action arm of the Republican party. The IRI (which has a Demcratic analog, the National Democratic Institute) does a lot of work overseas in terms of inculcating American governance practices.

Regarding the polls Tim cites, I'd say it's about damn time the FMLN got a shot at governing El Sal. Lord knows ARENA has had its times at bat; I would hope, really hope, that the FMLN does not do a worse job, especially when it comes to citizen security from crime, which has hit absolutely awful levels under successive ARENA administrations.

I always considered FMLN politico-economic positions to be invalid, but I also admired these guys for coming from the cold (ok, heat, in the case of El Sal) to try and participate in a liberal democratic system in post-war El Sal. En fin, while I disagree with their politics, I do support their chance at governance. They've worked within the system and they deserve a chance at making the system work better or screwing, whichever fate befalls them....

Tambopaxi said...

Correction: Make that last sentence read, "....chance at screwing up...", not screwing; god knows there's enough of the latter in El Salvador already....

Fish Guy said...

With all due respect to FMLN and their freedom to participate in the democratic process, it seems to me that the contest should be between PDC and ARENA.

Can someone who has been in El Salvador for the past 25 years tell me why the PDC has lost so much support in recent years?

Fish Guy

Anonymous said...

The PDC were one of the main instruments used by the U.S. from 1980-1989 as part of the counter-insurgency. The PDC also has a lot of problems with corruption in the party. Since the early 1990s the PDC has split into factions and the splits have had splits.