Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Latest election polls

The latest election polls are out and now show the FMLN leading ARENA nationally and in San Salvador. The minor parties are not showing any improvement in their position. The most recent poll by the Technological University of El Salvador shows:

Preference for deputies to the National Assembly:
  • FMLN -- 40.2%
  • ARENA -- 38.1%
  • PCN -- 11.6%
  • PDC -- 6.9%
This is a dramatic change from polling last November which showed ARENA leading the FMLN by 20 points.

The FMLN candidate for mayor of San Salvador, Violeta Menjivar, is starting to pull ahead of Samayoa of ARENA, lessening the possibility that the thrd party candidacy of current mayor Carlos Rivas Zamora would split the votes on the left and allow an ARENA victory.
Preferences for mayor of San Salvador:
  • Violeta Menjivar (FMLN) 27.27%
  • Rodrigo Samayoa (ARENA) 22.73%
  • Carlos Rivas Zamora (CD/FDR) 15.73%
Other polling results published in El Diario de Hoy show that in mayoral races, incumbents are usually in the lead and the major parties are splitting cities about evenly. The only exception to this advantage for incumbents is in San Salvador, where Carlos Rivas Zamora switched parties and left the FMLN for his third party candidacy.

Important Disclaimer -- pre-election polls in El Salvador are frequently poor predictors of what will actually happen. The only thing certain is that the close race will increase the heat of the rhetoric on both sides.

2 comments:

Jon said...

Thanks for this. You have no trackback, so let me just note that I cite this article here.

Anonymous said...

I was talking to my fiancee in San Salvador last night. Apparently ARENA has polled the most votes to win San Salvador - but only just - and against exit poll predictions.

FMLN supporters were in the streets, especially on the Colonia Escalon towards the more affluent parts of the city, threatening a riot. My fiancee's car was stoned, and she had to rush to the safety of her office at the Health Ministry.

If anyone has further info. I would be grateful as I am concerned for her safety.