Wednesday, February 01, 2006

FMLN surges in new opinion poll

The first results from any public opinion poll conducted after Schafik Handal's death show that the FMLN may be enjoying a bump in popularity following the death and funeral services of its historical leader. The poll by the Technological University of El Salvador, Center for Salvadoran Public Opinion Research revealed that the FMLN and ARENA are in a statistical tie leading into the March 12 elections:

  • Nationally for mayor 29.21% favor ARENA to 27.8% for the FMLN
  • Nationally for National Assembly 28.60% favor ARENA to 29.78% FMLN

This is a fairly dramatic swing from a La Prensa Grafica poll conducted earlier in January which had ARENA leading by 10 points in both categories.

The new poll also shows a very interesting race developing for mayor of San Salvador:
  • Violeta Menjivar (FMLN) -- 24.92%
  • Rodrigo Samayoa (ARENA) -- 24.62%
  • Carlos Rivas Zamora (CD/FDR/PDC)-- 15.85%

This is the strongest showing for the current mayor, Rivas Zamora, in any poll since he left the FMLN.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Viva El Frente
time to get rid of Bush's puppets in power in El Salvador
after 13 years there, i have seen the bad changes and obvious greed and corruption due to some of the same ole same ole
Peace

Miguel Lerdo said...

Unfortunately, the FMLN has doomed itself to be a permanent opposition without any chance of actually governing the country. The FMLN is just too wedded the promises it made die-hard members years ago. Mayorships are treated like patronage jobs. I have a brother-in-law who has been the FMLN Mayor of a medium sized city for over 7 years. (I won’t name names – I have to keep peace in the family). His greatest accomplishment, announced on a large banner in the center of the city, is the building of a gorgeous municipal office building. Such poor governance is true for both parties, but, with a few exceptions, the FMLN is failing to offer a more honest alternative.

A couple of years ago ARENA argued that Socialist President Zapatero of Spain was ideologically closer to ARENA than the FMLN. The message was clear – there is a range of consensus in the international sphere regarding acceptable ideological positions. The FMLN falls outside this range. Since that time, the FMLN has cast off its moderate wing to the responsible center, the CD.

The Salvadorian people have been ready for change during several past election cycles. People don’t really want indefinite one party rule. The left in El Salvador can’t win until it convinces the public that it will not provoke financial chaos and international condemnation. Despite hopes during the Hector Silva era, the CD has proved itself incapable of building a viable centrist movement. Its alliances with the infamously corrupt PDC can’t help. While I morn the passing of Shafik, it may open the way for the FMLN to pursue a more moderate path. Absent this, I regretfully predict 15 more years of ARENA rule.

Anonymous said...

miguel lerdo... right on, unfortunately.

ARENA needs strong, rational opposition.

An arena faced with an idiotarian FMLN has a very low threshold to meet and will continue to be a mediocre ARENA

cheers, XAVI

james said...

The City of San Salvador mayor's office printed a memorial to Shafik Handal in La Prensa Grafica. Included was a lengthy quote from Karl Marx. Nuff said.

max said...

Unfortunately mr Lerdo, the only way to achieve any meaningful long term change in the terrible inequality situation that Salvadoreans live is to radically change the way the economy is run, not by taking away private property like many people think, but by protecting core industries such as agriculture, water and electric distribution, by changing the taxation system to a progressive taxation system,by developing a strong industrial sector,by developing strong and real labor laws so that people can actually afford to buy what they produce, by not letting transnationals determine our economic policy , etc. Regretfully the means necessary to achieve these changes and for these changes to be long term require a 180 degree turnaround in economic policy, such turaround goes against the neoliberal system imposed on the developing world by such organizations as the world bank and the transnational corporations(through CAFTA). To do this, and if you really care about generating a better society for all concerned, you cannot compromise. FMLN is not perfect, nothing can be perfect as long as humans are involved, but the alternative is what the country is living now, assasinations, violence, hunger, lack of adequate shelter, flooding (thanks to deforestation),etc. We must remember people are not stupid, they cannot tolerate this much longer,not many people can stand idly by and see their kids starve to death, if something is not done quickly and radically, I fear things might just get uglier and no one wants that. And by the way James (another blogger that comented on mr Lerdo's remarks), what is wrong with Marx, I wonder if you have ever so much as read a page written by him, he was a philosopher that studied the most advanced capitalist society of his time and discovered what makes capitalism tick, he is one of the great minds of the 19th century.