Saturday, September 17, 2005

Could a party in the center emerge?


Political polling in El Salvador shows that the ruling ARENA party and the leftist FMLN party hold the allegiance of a declining number of Salvadorans. However, no other party attracts as much as 5% of possible voters, and the new Democratic Revolutionary Front (FDR in Spanish) party has not even been certified yet. Recent poll results from Gallup regarding next year's mayoral and National Assembly elections show 48% of Salvadorans have no preference, followed by 31% supporting ARENA and 16% supporting the FMLN. This was similar to earlier polling by La Prensa.

Meanwhile, the defections from the FMLN have continued. More mayors and deputies have left the party including Rene Canjura, the popular mayor of Nejapa and Carlos Rivas Zamora, mayor of San Salvador.

But so far, none of the smaller parties have earned the allegiance of any significant part of the population. When the elections actually take place next spring, the smaller parties lack the cadres of party faithful who make so much noise within the political space of El Salvador. They also lack access to mass media. Thus even if a small party could develop a compelling alternative message, it will not have the tools to get that message out. So don't expect to see any major shifts in El Salvador's political landscape next spring.

3 comments:

David said...

Most importantly, the smaller parties lack MONEY!

Mike said...

Here's a recent note about the FDR's competing in the upcoming elections.

http://www.elsalvador.com/vertice/2005/180905/portada.html

Tim said...

David's right about the money, and Mike's article has good insights into the situation facing the newly formed FDR.